is now the time??? Bouncing off support, she is…
Fred W.
Romans 1:16
“I’d like to see Congress subject to random drug tests!!” -Sir Skirtchaser
That’s a hard call. It looks pretty interesting at this price. I would assume that there will be plenty of opportunities to buy into stocks over the next few years. One thing to think about though is how much steam is really left in this stock? It’s valued at 110B market cap right now. MSFT is valued at 260B. How much more can AAPL grow? Is AAPL really worth half of what MSFT is worth? iPOD likely doesn’t have much growth left and Mac World was pretty disappointing to most this year. They are gaining market share in the desktop world though at 7% and have a lot of room to grow there. iPhone is best of breed, but has a lot of competition, plus you can only get it with at&t if I am not mistaken which will keep a lot of people from buying one.
On the flip side, MFST and CSCO both carried market caps upwards of 500B at one point in the tech bubble. Look at both of them now. If you invested 100K in MFST at it’s peak, then you would be left with about 50K now. If you had invested 100K in CSCO, then your stock would be worth about 32K. That would be an ouch. But, will AAPL hit 400B-500B before people realize it’s overbaked? Who knows?
I think that you can wait a little before getting into this stock. You should see some ups and downs.
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejThat’s a hard call. It looks pretty interesting at this price. I would assume that there will be plenty of opportunities to buy into stocks over the next few years. One thing to think about though is how much steam is really left in this stock? It’s valued at 110B market cap right now. MSFT is valued at 260B. How much more can AAPL grow? Is AAPL really worth half of what MSFT is worth? iPOD likely doesn’t have much growth left and Mac World was pretty disappointing to most this year. They are gaining market share in the desktop world though at 7% and have a lot of room to grow there. iPhone is best of breed, but has a lot of competition, plus you can only get it with at&t if I am not mistaken which will keep a lot of people from buying one.
On the flip side, MFST and CSCO both carried market caps upwards of 500B at one point in the tech bubble. Look at both of them now. If you invested 100K in MFST at it’s peak, then you would be left with about 50K now. If you had invested 100K in CSCO, then your stock would be worth about 32K. That would be an ouch. But, will AAPL hit 400B-500B before people realize it’s overbaked? Who knows?
I think that you can wait a little before getting into this stock. You should see some ups and downs.
AAPL is valued at > $300/share…
Fred W.
Romans 1:16
“I’d like to see Congress subject to random drug tests!!” -Sir Skirtchaser
my wife has always been an Apple fan. she tried to convince me how much more user friendly their products were. I was raised on a PC and never gave a Mac a chance, but then again I never needed them for many of the reasons she did; ie design and graphic based work. she told me not to buy her things with a plug anymore (ok, don’t go THERE) until I got us both iPhones. I fell in love with my iPhone and she said this is how ALL Apple products are and why there is such an almost underground following of their products. they keep revamping the iPod, iPhone is incredible, and their laptops are garnering more and more mainstream attention, even from those not looking to them for graphics oriented use. saying this I think AAPL is a good buy for the long term at this level. the stock is very volatile around earnings simply because there has been so much expected from the company. when you increase earnings by 20% for a few quarters and guide higher then Wall St. expects the same and you are punished for only 15% growth the next quarter. If Apple continues to innovate and pump out new products then growth will remain very strong. if they scale back on the new products and begin focusing on faster and smaller current products then you will still see growth, only at a more moderate pace.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL and hold stock and options.
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
Who has valued AAPL at $300/share? Certainly no one or it would be selling for $300/share. A good company does not make a good stock.
Do you guys think that MSFT is a great company? Have you seen the stock performance for the past 4 years?
AAPL was added to Goldman’s hot list this morning. they are hanging tough in a mildly bad tape. I had some front month $125 calls that I cashed in on this morning.
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
If there is one broker that you cannot trust, it is GS. Funny how they seem to be the only ones profiting during the Subprime crisis.
quote:WORD!!!
Originally posted by skinneejIf there is one broker that you cannot trust, it is GS. Funny how they seem to be the only ones profiting during the Subprime crisis.
Fred W.
Romans 1:16
“You try to bragg, you get your rhymes from a grab-bag… No good scavenger, catfish vulture, my tongue’s a chisel and this competition’s sculpture…” -LL Cool J
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejWho has valued AAPL at $300/share? Certainly no one or it would be selling for $300/share. A good company does not make a good stock.
Do you guys think that MSFT is a great company? Have you seen the stock performance for the past 4 years?
the stock, like a lot of techs, are seriously oversold… Mike Coval valued it at $319…
Fred W.
Romans 1:16
“You try to bragg, you get your rhymes from a grab-bag… No good scavenger, catfish vulture, my tongue’s a chisel and this competition’s sculpture…” -LL Cool J
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejIf there is one broker that you cannot trust, it is GS. Funny how they seem to be the only ones profiting during the Subprime crisis.
i beg to differ. GS was short during the peak of the subprime mess. I still think they are the smartest guys in the room and heavily invested in them for the long run. they tend to get thrown out with the rest of the crap, but they should shine when financials and brokers turn around.
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
quote:Do you not see how ludacris that is? If it goes for $319/share, then it will see a 280B market capitalization based on 4 Billion in revenue. MSFT makes more money than that in ONE QUARTER!!! MSFT has a 260B market cap today and makes 17B a year... Now, let me ask you again, would you rather pay $280 Billion dollars for a company that earns $4 Billion a year for you or would you rather pay $260 Billion for a company that earns $17 Billion a year for you?
Originally posted by DrumReaperquote:
Originally posted by skinneejWho has valued AAPL at $300/share? Certainly no one or it would be selling for $300/share. A good company does not make a good stock.
Do you guys think that MSFT is a great company? Have you seen the stock performance for the past 4 years?
the stock, like a lot of techs, are seriously oversold… Mike Coval valued it at $319…
So, you are telling me that Mark Coval says that a fair price for AAPL is a P/E of 70!!! That is absurd!!!
quote:How are you differing from me? I said that they made a profit. They sold subprime backed equities to their own clients and shorted them all the way down making a lot of money... DOes that not hint of criminal nature?
Originally posted by Bonzo72quote:
Originally posted by skinneejIf there is one broker that you cannot trust, it is GS. Funny how they seem to be the only ones profiting during the Subprime crisis.
i beg to differ. GS was short during the peak of the subprime mess. I still think they are the smartest guys in the room and heavily invested in them for the long run. they tend to get thrown out with the rest of the crap, but they should shine when financials and brokers turn around.
quote:
Originally posted by skinneejquote:How are you differing from me? I said that they made a profit. They sold subprime backed equities to their own clients and shorted them all the way down making a lot of money... DOes that not hint of criminal nature?
Originally posted by Bonzo72quote:
Originally posted by skinneejIf there is one broker that you cannot trust, it is GS. Funny how they seem to be the only ones profiting during the Subprime crisis.
i beg to differ. GS was short during the peak of the subprime mess. I still think they are the smartest guys in the room and heavily invested in them for the long run. they tend to get thrown out with the rest of the crap, but they should shine when financials and brokers turn around.
Buy Goldman Sachs!
quote:Join the game, and load up your portfolio on GS.
Originally posted by porkpiBuy Goldman Sachs!
skineej,
here’s the link to the Valuation Analysis Mike Coval uses… it explains why AAPL is valued at $319/share… good luck.
http://toolbox.investools.com/graphs/fundamentalAnalysis/valuationAnalysis.iedu?symbol=AAPL
Fred W.
Romans 1:16
“You try to bragg, you get your rhymes from a grab-bag… No good scavenger, catfish vulture, my tongue’s a chisel and this competition’s sculpture…” -LL Cool J
Drum, you an InvesTools student too?
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
quote:
Originally posted by Bonzo72Drum, you an InvesTools student too?
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org
yep… my wife and her mom are phD’ers… what have you done so far???
Fred W.
Romans 1:16
“You try to bragg, you get your rhymes from a grab-bag… No good scavenger, catfish vulture, my tongue’s a chisel and this competition’s sculpture…” -LL Cool J
I’m not signed up for Invest tools, but you didn’t answer my question…
“Now, let me ask you again, would you rather pay $280 Billion dollars for a company that earns $4 Billion a year for you or would you rather pay $260 Billion for a company that earns $17 Billion a year for you?”
One thing that people forget is a share of stock is ownership in a company. If you own all the stock you own the entire company. The ONLY reason that people pay high multiples (P\E) is because they are expecting explosive growth. A PEG of 1.0 says that at a $319 share price you are expecting a 70% growth rate with AAPL next year. Do you really think that a 100B consumer electronics company can grow it’s revenues that quickly in a recession? The bigger you are, the harder it is to grow!!!
EMT says that something is only worth what people will pay for it. The market thinks AAPL is only worth $130 per share. Why would you listen to this one guy who puts a $319 target? Also what is his time frame? It’s not worth that much today.
Dude, I hear ya, and I understand your point… but, it got an honest value analysis at $319/share… Bonzo can verify that, and Bonzo if you know how to copy a page a post it here, please do so, so SkineeJ can see…
No disrespect, Skinee, cause I understand where you coming from and I think you are up to snuff on a good bit of this stuff, but this was Mike Coval, dude…
Fred W.
Romans 1:16
“You try to bragg, you get your rhymes from a grab-bag… No good scavenger, catfish vulture, my tongue’s a chisel and this competition’s sculpture…” -LL Cool J
Drum,
I tried a simple copy and paste from the Investools web page you poasted, but it was jumbled all up and made no sense.
I don’t have a dog in this hunt but watch out cause skinnej is throwing out the “R” word again!
I do think AAPL is undervalued right now, but like I have said before, when you fricken blow away the analysts’ estimate quarter after quarter and then only begin to come in line your stock gets beat up pretty badly until people realize they were paying for potential to begin with. That takes TIME, TIME, TIME. Do I think AAPL is a buy here? Absolutely YES with a pullback to either $120 or $113. There is STRONG support there for sure. It is already oversold, but this day and age that has become commonplace. Now, for this advice I need $10,000 from each of you for my stock game portfolio…I got slaughtered today…still playing that short term game dammit!
PALMETTO C ~ 16’ Sea Fox
The Morris Island Lighthouse web page
www.savethelight.org